WINTER 2022 ECONOMIC FORECAST: GROWTH EXPECTED TO REGAIN TRACTION AFTER WINTER SLOWDOWN
The Winter 2022 Economic Forecast projects that, following a notable expansion by 5.3% in 2021, the EU economy will grow by 4.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. Growth in the euro area is also expected at 4.0% in 2022, moderating to 2.7% in 2023. The EU as a whole reached its pre-pandemic level of GDP in the third quarter of 2021 and all Member States are projected to have passed this milestone by the end of 2022.
Economic growth set to regain traction
After the robust rebound in economic activity that started in spring last year and continued unabated through early autumn, the growth momentum in the EU is estimated to have slowed to 0.4% in the last quarter of 2021, from 2.2% in the previous quarter. While a slowdown was already expected in the Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast, after the EU economy closed the gap with its pre-pandemic output level in 2021-Q3, it was sharper than projected as headwinds to growth intensified: notably, the surge in COVID-19 infections, high energy prices and continued supply-side disruptions.
Growth continues to be shaped by the pandemic, with many EU countries under pressure from a combination of increased strain on healthcare systems and staff shortages due to illness, precautionary quarantines or care duties. Logistic and supply bottlenecks, including shortages of semiconductors and some metal commodities, are also set to keep weighing on production, at least throughout the first half of the year. Last but not least, energy prices are now expected to remain elevated for longer than expected in the Autumn Forecast, thereby exerting a more protracted drag on the economy and higher inflationary pressures.
This forecast assumes that the strain on the economy caused by the current wave of infections will be short lived. Economic activity is set to regain traction, also as supply conditions normalise and inflationary pressures moderate. Looking beyond the short-term turbulence, the fundamentals underpinning this expansionary phase continue to be strong. A continuously improving labour market, high household savings, still favourable financing conditions, and the full deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) are all set to sustain a prolonged and robust expansionary phase.
