BULGARIA'S ECONOMY EXPANDS BY 0.5% IN Q3 2012 Y/Y

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Bulgaria expanded 0.5% in the third quarter of 2012, compared with the same quarter of the previous year and 0.1% compared with the second quarter of 2012.

These flash estimates were released Thursday by the Bulgarian National Statistics Institute, NSI.

According to the flash GDP estimates for the third quarter of 2012, the GDP at current prices amounted to BGN 21 735 M.

GVA at current prices amounted to BGN 18 571 M for the third quarter of 2012. The services sector has the largest share (57.3%) in total value added, followed by industrial sector (31.2%) and agricultural sector (11.5%).

In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach, the final consumption has the largest share, (70.3%), which in nominal terms amounted to BGN 15 292 M. In the third quarter of 2012, the gross fixed capital formation is BGN 3 580 M and has a share of 16.5% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) has a positive sign.

According to the seasonally adjusted data, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2012 has an increase of 0.1%, compared with the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2012, the gross value added of the total economyincreased by 0.1%, compared to the second quarter of 2012.

According to flash estimates of GDP by final expenditure in the third quarter of 2012, the final consumption expenditure and the gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.4%, having a major contribution to the registered growth. Compared with the previous quarter, in the third quarter of 2012, exports of goods and services increased by 0.2%, while imports of goods and services decreased by 3.7%.

During the third quarter of 2012, GDP increased by 0.5% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The gross value added increased by 0.2%. The indicator's movement is determined mainly by the increase recorded in the agricultural sector (by 6.3%) and industry (by 3.5%). The services sector has a negative contribution to the value added with a decline of 1.0% over the period.

Regarding the expenditure components of GDP, the final consumption registered a positive economic growth of 2.9%, compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The gross fixed capital formation recorded an increase of 1.0%, compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

Exports and imports of goods and services increased by 3.5 and 3.0% respectively.

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union defines flash estimates as:

"...the earliest picture of the economy according to national accounts concepts, which is produced and published as soon as possible after the end of the quarter, using a more incomplete set of information than that used for traditional quarterly accounts..."

Flash estimates for GDP in the context of general conditions for the preparation of short – term indicators are based on preliminary short – term information (subject to subsequent update and revisions) expert assessments and models for the components of GDP structure, for which direct basic information at the time of calculation is not available.

Flash estimates of GDP for the second quarter of 2012 were prepared within 44 days after the reference period. They are presented in a standard format for publication of quarterly national accounts data - current prices, relative shares of the components in the GDP structure and growth rates as compared with the previous quarter and compared with the same period of the previous year.

According to the Calendar of statistical surveys, NSI will prepare and publish official quarterly estimates of GDP for the second quarter of 2012 on September 5th 2012.