BULGARIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH TO RANGE BETWEEN 2.2% AND 2.8% THIS YEAR

Experts expect the budget deficit to remain in the range of 2.55 - 3.4%

The Bulgarian economy will mark growth of 2.2% - 2.8% this year, according to the analyses of Eurobank EFG Group, Raiffeisen, UniCredit Bulbank and BNP Paribas, presented at the Euromoney conference, which was opened on Monday in Vienna. According to the expectations of the financial institutions, GDP will recover but at a slower pace than the rate envisaged by the government. The budget for next year set a 3.6 % growth. The estimates of the banking groups are closer to the expectations of the European Commission, EBRD, Fitch, the IMF and the World Bank.

Experts from the Eurobank EFG group, for example, believe that growth will be in the range of 2.5% and the budget deficit will be 2.8% of GDP. Fiscal discipline will lay the groundwork for stronger economic recovery in 2011 which will pave the way for Bulgaria to join the Exchange Rate Mechanism ERM-II, stated bank representatives. According to them, the final deficit will depend not only on the development of the economy but also on this year's composition of growth. The Eurobank EFG group believes that the GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) government remains committed to rapid Euro adoption, as soon as the internal and external macroeconomic and political conditions allow this to happen. According to economists, in 2012 at the earliest, our country will have the opportunity to apply for ERM-II accession but only if the fiscal targets are achieved.

UniCredit Group experts were more optimistic in their forecast for economic growth in Bulgaria. According to their estimates, this year, GDP will grow by 2.8%, while the Treasury deficit will also be in the range of 2.8% of GDP.