The decline in the trade index continued in 2025. In 2024 it stood at 14.49, and a year later it dropped to 11.64. The national index decreased to 9.30. These are the findings of the annual nationally representative survey of the business environment in Bulgaria (BBCI – Bulgarian Business Climate Index), conducted by the ESTAT agency among managers of 558 Bulgarian companies. According to the data, the turbulent external and internal environment is leading to conflicting assessments by entrepreneurs and signs of deterioration in the condition of companies and entire sectors of the economy. The survey has been conducted for the third consecutive year at the request of the Modern Trade Association (MTA) and the Bulgarian Retail Association (BRA), with company managers interviewed between 3 December 2025 and 31 January 2026.
The main conclusions show that the overall value of the indicator fell by about 0.5 percentage points, but the decline in the trade sector was close to 3 points, down to 11.64. As a result, the sector loses its second place from 2024 and now ranks third, overtaken by industry and education and healthcare. Declines were also recorded in agriculture and transport and logistics, while hospitality and restaurants and especially real estate operations show a positive trend. At the same time, the share of companies at risk has increased two and a half to three times—both for the real sector overall and for trade in particular. While a year ago the share of trade companies at risk was 8 percent, it has now reached 25 percent, which in absolute terms equals around 34,000 enterprises.
Investment intentions remain high, but they depend on the availability of investment resources. At the same time, it is worrying that the number of companies whose managers cannot point to even a single competitive advantage over their competitors is increasing. Competition and household consumption remain the leading factors in assessing the business environment, with the evaluations of traders and entrepreneurs in the main sample becoming closer compared with the end of 2024. Regulatory control in the trade sector remains significant and has even increased, with particularly strong pressure from the Commission for Protection of Competition and the Consumer Protection Commission, mainly regarding inspections that end with formal violation reports. In 2025, one inspection involved more people, took slightly less time, and cost the same amount—on average four people, seven hours, and 780 leva.
The problem with human resources continues to deepen and is reaching dramatic proportions. Over the past three years, hiring an employee for a store staff position has taken progressively longer—an average of 2.9 weeks in 2023, 4.0 weeks in 2024, and 6.5 weeks by the end of 2025. At the same time, the share of companies offering employee benefits has increased by 11 percentage points, reaching nearly two-thirds of companies in the sector. Distrust toward the state and its policies remains high and is likely to continue being fueled by political instability in the country. There are clear signs that businesses are not in a position to bear an increase in the tax and social security burden, even though they appear to have adapted to inspections by regulatory bodies and to frequent changes in the legal framework.
Since its establishment in 2010, the Modern Trade Association has brought together some of the largest retail chains, with more than 1,000 retail outlets and nearly 23,000 employees across the country. Its members are leading companies in the trade of fast-moving consumer goods, household appliances, healthcare products, drugstore goods, and construction materials and equipment. Since its creation, the association has represented their interests while strictly observing established good practices, competition law, and the principle of pluralism in setting priorities and making decisions. With investments exceeding 6 billion leva over the past decade and more than 57,000 employees, companies that are members of the association play a significant role in the national economy as reliable taxpayers and investors in a number of socially important causes.
The Bulgarian Business Climate Index (BBCI) is a tool for evaluating and analyzing the state of the business environment in Bulgaria and for tracking the prospects for Bulgarian businesses in the short and medium term. It was developed in 2002 by the Center for Economic Development and is based on a business survey among company managers, similar to the German IFO Business Climate Index. Data were collected quarterly between 2002 and 2010, and after a long interruption the index was updated and relaunched at the beginning of 2023. The current wave includes a main sample of 394 companies, supplemented by 164 trading companies.
