Output
In December 2025, the industrial confidence indicator increases by 1.8 percentage points in comparison with November 2025, according to the business inquiries of NSI.
In October 2025, a decline of 7.7% was registered in the calendar-adjusted Industrial Production Index in comparison with the same month in 2024. On an annual basis, a drop of the Industrial Production Index was observed in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply - by 10.9%, in the mining and quarrying industry - by 10.7%, and in the manufacturing - by 6.5%.
The calendar-adjusted data showed a rise of 3.1% in the construction production compared to the same month of 2024. In October 2025, compared to the same month of 2024, a rise of the production was registered in the civil engineering - by 4.9%, in the construction of buildings - by 2.8%, and in the specialized construction activities - by 2.1%.
According to the preliminary data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices for the third quarter of 2025 is 62 659.3 million BGN. The GDP per person is 9 755 BGN. At an average for the quarter exchange rate of 1.674801 BGN for 1 USD, the GDP is 37 413 million USD, or 5 824 USD per person. In Euro terms, GDP reached 32 037 million EUR in total and 4 987 EUR per person.
Private consumption
In October 2025, the total consumer confidence indicator drops by 4.0 percentage points compared to its July level, which is due to the decreased confidence among both urban and rural inhabitants. The opinions about the development of the general economic situation in the country over the last 12 months and the expectations over the next 12 months, are more negative in comparison with the previous survey.
The calendar-adjusted retail trade turnover rose by 7.4% compared to the same month in 2024. In October 2025, compared to the same month of 2024, a rise of the turnover was registered in ‘Retail sales of non-food products (except fuel)’ - by 12.9%, and in ‘Retail sales of automotive fuel in specialised stores’ - by 7.8%, while in the ‘Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco’ a decrease was reported - by 0.2%.
During the third quarter of 2025, 67.8% of GDP was spent on individual consumption. The indicator increased by 9.0% in real terms compared to the respective quarter of 2024 (according to seasonally adjusted data).
Investment
The relative share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 20.6%. The indicator increased by 8.7% in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year, according to seasonally adjusted data.
In October 2025, the average capacity utilization in the industry increased by 0.3 percentage point in comparison whit July and reached 75.4%, according to the business inquiries of NSI.
Labour market
In the third quarter of 2025, there were 2 956.0 thousand employed persons, of whom 1 563.0 thousand men and 1 392.9 thousand women. The employment rate for the population aged 15 years and over was 53.6%, 59.7% for men and 48.1% for women.
In the third quarter of 2025, there 104.5 thousand unemployed persons, of whom 59.5 thousand (57.0%) men and 45.0 thousand (43.0%) women. The unemployment rate was 3.4%, 3.7% for men and 3.1% for women, respectively.
In the third quarter of 2025, compared to the third quarter of 2024, the total hourly labour cost rose by 12.3% (preliminary data). The total hourly labour cost increased by 12.8% in industry, by 11.3% in services and by 16.4% in construction.
In December 2025, 34.8% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity, according to the business inquiries of NSI.
In September 2025, the average gross wage and salary was BGN 2 580 and increased by 3.3% compared to the previous month, and by 11.9% compared to September 2024.
International transactions[1]
In December 2025, the production assurance with orders from abroad decreases by 4.1 percentage points in comparison with November 2025, according to the industrial managers’ assessments registered by the business inquiries of NSI.
The current account[2] was negative amounting to EUR 1 064.6 million in October 2025, compared with a negative balance of EUR 753.6 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, the current account was negative and amounted to EUR 4 052.1 million (3.6% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR 392.7 million (0.4% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
The trade balance[2] recorded a deficit of EUR 1 044.4 million in October 2025, compared with a negative balance of EUR 739 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, the balance on goods was negative amounting to EUR 7 083.7 million (6.3% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR 3 548.2 million (3.4% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
Exports of goods[2] amounted to EUR 3 981.5 million in October 2025, growing by EUR 76.5 million (2%) from EUR 3 905 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, exports of goods totalled EUR 35 447.1 million (31.6% of GDP), dropping by EUR 1 317.9 million (3.6%) year-on-year (from EUR 36 765 million, 35.1% of GDP). In January - October 2024, exports grew by 0.2% year-on-year.
Imports of goods[2] amounted to EUR 5 025.9 million in October 2025, increasing by EUR 381.8 million (8.2%) from October 2024 (EUR 4 644.1 million). In January - October 2025, imports of goods totalled EUR 42 530.8 million (37.9% of GDP), growing by EUR 2 217.6 million (5.5%) from January - October 2024 (EUR 40,313.2 million, 38.5% of GDP). In January - October 2024, imports grew by 2.2% year-on-year.
The direct investment abroad[2] grew by EUR 12.2 million in October 2025, compared with an increase of EUR 25 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, direct investment abroad rose by EUR 418.1 million, compared with an increase of EUR 673.8 million in January - October 2024.
The net direct investment[2] was negative amounting to EUR 436.3 million, compared with a negative balance of EUR 307.6 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, direct investment recorded an outflow of EUR 2 148.1 million (1.9% of GDP), compared with a negative balance of EUR 1 757 million (1.7% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
The foreign direct investment in Bulgaria[2] (under the directional principle) grew by EUR 448.5 million in October 2025 according to preliminary data, compared with an increase of EUR 332.6 million in October 20244. In January - October 2025, foreign direct investment in Bulgaria rose by EUR 2 566.2 million, compared with an increase of EUR 2 430.8 million in January - October 2024.
The balance on portfolio investment[2]was positive amounting to EUR 502.5 million, compared with a positive balance of EUR 428.7 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, the balance was negative and equated to EUR 3 266.9 million (2.9% of GDP), compared with a positive balance of EUR 2 181.8 million (2.1% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
Portfolio investment - assets[2] grew by EUR 544.9 million, compared with an increase of EUR 238.5 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, they grew by EUR 1 499.1 million (1.3% of GDP), compared with an increase of EUR 4 550.5 million (4.3% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
Portfolio investment - liabilities[2], grew by EUR 42.4 million, compared with a decline of EUR 190.2 million in October 2024. In January - October 2025, portfolio investment - liabilities, grew by EUR 4 766 million (4.2% of GDP), compared with an increase of EUR 2 368.7 million (2.3% of GDP) in January - October 2024.
In the third quarter of 2025, the external balance of goods and services was positive.
Prices
In November 2025, the monthly inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), was 0.5% compared to the previous month, and the annual inflation rate was 5.2%. In November 2025, compared to the previous month, an increase was registered in the following groups: 'Recreation and culture’ (3.7%), ‘Transport’ (1.3%) and ‘Restaurants and hotels’ (0.6%). A decrease in the prices was recorded in the following groups: ‘Communications’ (-1.0%) and ‘Clothing and footwear’ (-0.1%).
In the third quarter of 2025, the house price index increased by 15.4% compared to the same quarter of 2024.
The Producer Price Index on the Domestic Market increased by 13.8% compared to November 2024. The prices went up in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply - by 35.2%, in the mining and quarrying industry - by 10.8%, and in the manufacturing industry - by 9.5%.
In December 2025, the share of the managers’ who foresee the selling prices in the industry to increase over the next 3 months is raised, according to the business inquiries of NSI.
Monetary and financial indicators[1]
In November 2025, broad money (monetary aggregate M3)[2] increased annually by 6.8% (7.7% annual growth in October 2025). At the end of November 2025, M3 was BGN 175.028 billion (79.7% of GDP) compared to BGN 176.143 billion (80.2% of GDP) in October 2025.
The loans to Non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs[2] in November 2025 amounted to BGN 108.296 billion. In November 2025, loans to Non-financial corporations increased by 9.9% annually (9.5% annual growth in October 2025) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 52.891 billion (24.1% of GDP). Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN 55.405 billion (25.2% of GDP) at the end of November 2025.
In November 2025, the monthly average exchange rate of BGN against the USD[2] reached BGN 1.69 per 1 USD.
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[1] The estimates of GDP are from BNB.
[2] Preliminary data. In accordance with the practice of the BNB and the data revision requirements of the ECB.
