The BNB expects economic growth of 3,9 percent this year, according to data from the new macroeconomic forecast of the Central Bank. Next year, growth will accelerate to 4,7 percent.
Annual inflation, measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices, is projected to accelerate to 3,8% by the end of the year, according to central bank experts. The weight of the individual components in this index is according to the methodology of Eurostat, and not according to that of the National Statistical Institute, where the importance of energy products and food products is greater for the budget of Bulgarian households.
The BNB also sees a pro-inflationary impact in the acceleration of private consumption, which is predicated on income growth.
Part of the additional income of households is expected to be used to increase private consumption or to be maintained by households in the form of cash. The reduction in uncertainty, determined by the assumption of control of the Covid-19 pandemic, will contribute to the gradual reduction of savings with a protective motive, according to the BNB.
Low interest rates on lending determine the demand for consumer and housing loans, and after the expiration of the partial moratorium, there may be a “moderate increase” in the share of non-performing loans, added the Central Bank.
