The most difficult prognosis is what will happen from this date forward until the end of Summer, BIA's Chairman underlined on Bulgaria on air
"All analysts are adamant about the end of 2021, where a strong development of the European and world economy is expected, Bulgaria included. The most difficult months to predict are starting from today - until the end of Summer. Radosvet Radev, Chairman of the Bulgarian Industrail Association claimed in the program "Oporni hora".
"Minister Borissov interprets the data from Eurostat, which indicates that Bulgaria is in the top five countries that have increased their consumption in November. This is true. However, the same Eurostat shows that on an annual basis the consumption in Bulgaria is in the five countries that have lost the most consumers ", adds Radosvet Radev.
BNB data show that household savings have grown by BGN 5 billion in 2020. According to the businessman, "the pragmatic Bulgarian has done the right thing - he does not know the size of the disaster, but he knows that disaster is coming. He postpones consumption or does not consume it at all and puts it aside. However, this means 5 billion leva out of consumption. If they were spent on Bulgarian goods and services, the VAT would be BGN 1 billion. This means that BGN 1 billion did not enter the fiscal system of Bulgaria. Therefore, when we say that consumption is one of the locomotives for economic recovery, economists are not mistaken.
Radosvet Radev emphasized the psychology of the consumer, “that he/she spends his/her future money. If one buys a car, a house, etc., he/she must be sure of the future income. This is the insidiousness of the situation. "People are scared and they don't consume."
The amount of money in banks is growing. "But on the other hand, they are turning to the classic banking mechanism in the Bulgarian economy through the credit business," the Chairman of BIA added.
"The government's measures, good or bad, have been delayed. And now comes the time when they must be paid. I have to emphasize that the NRA has evolved from an organization that collects information to an organization that provides information. This is a pragmatic solution for managing these processes ", Radosvet Radev stated satisfied regarding the change.
In reference to the state's participation in the "60/40" measure, Radosvet Radev estimated that it is about BGN 700 million. It should be noted that this is 60 percent of the money that has reached the employees. There are another 40% that are taken care of by the employers. They are sometimes forgotten. So, if we count 60/40 - money that has reached the employees, it is over BGN 1.1 billion. This is a 60% share of the state and a 40% share of the business.
"Everyone is saying - the end of the pandemic is coming, but no one says on which specific date is will happen!"
According to Radosvet Radev, there is an interesting indicator of the business environment. "These are the stock exchanges. All stock exchanges ended in 2020 with record hights. The stock markets have a feeling about what will happen in the future 6-9 months. The BSE is also giving signs that something good is about to happen," BIA Chairman Radosvet Radev claimed optimistically.