The Bulgarian Industrial Association presents the results of its traditional online survey of BIA members, conducted between November 7 and December 7, 2025, among 847 micro, small, medium and large enterprises from across the country and from all sectors of the economy. The presentation of the survey results was scheduled for December 15, 2025, but was postponed in view of the protests and the resignation of the government in order to prevent the politicization of information.
The survey is being conducted for the 21st consecutive year, and its goal is to examine the state of business in the current macroeconomic conditions. The main topics are related to the impact of political processes on international and national business in Bulgaria, as well as business planning for the next calendar year.
Assessment of 2025
The survey participants gave a predominantly negative assessment of both the state of the business climate and the state of their own companies.
The pessimism among Bulgarian businesses in 2025 is caused by the combination of external shocks (the international geopolitical situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the energy crisis), their after-effects, high inflation and production costs, slowing demand, prolonged political instability, and other internal problems such as staff shortages and administrative burdens. These factors act simultaneously and intensify the sense of uncertainty, which leads businesses to limit their expectations and focus on survival instead of growth, in the midst of the process of transition to a new currency from January 1, 2026.
After a series of crises (COVID-19, rising energy prices, war in Ukraine), a slowdown in global economic growth is already being observed, with a large portion of Bulgarian enterprises expecting their own results to deteriorate due to the weakening of the global economy.
Pessimistic attitudes are also fueled by forecasts of shrinking orders and demand, both domestically and externally.
The domestic political situation also has a strong negative effect on the business climate.
The lack of sustainable governance and reforms increases uncertainty and makes long-term planning difficult. Business representatives also note a deficit in partnership between business and state institutions, with trust in the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government almost nil.
Labor shortages and regulatory hurdles persist. Businesses continue to complain about corruption in the administration. Uncertainty about government policy also contributes to pessimism.
Forecasts for 2026
Traditionally, between 30 and 40 percent of participants in the annual BIA surveys are optimistic about the future of the economy. The percentage of optimists was lowest in 2011 (13%) and in 2020 (11%) – in the first case after the financial crisis of 2009-2010, and in the second – because of the Covid crisis. These are precisely the years in which there were the most pessimists – 71% in 2011 and 70% in 2020.
After the Covid crisis subsided, traditional optimism briefly returned in 2021, but it was quickly overshadowed by reality. In the current survey, pessimists again predominate (66%).
The majority of respondents see the risks facing the development of the Bulgarian economy in the expected growth of prices and inflation, the fiscal and regulatory burden, and the constantly rising cost of labor. Business concerns are mainly rooted in the ongoing (and unpredictable in time) international and national crises and political turbulence, which lead to instability and uncertainty, impossibility of predictability and planning.
The obstacles
The biggest obstacles to business are the lack of labor, bureaucracy, regulatory burden, frequently changing regulations, and corruption. The ineffective judicial system is also a serious problem.
For the majority of respondents, the high prices of raw materials, materials and energy resources, as well as the uncontrollable and unjustified growth of incomes, create serious problems, forcing them to increase the final prices of their production and cut costs (mainly investments).
The plans
Expectations of rising prices and, more specifically, the cost of labor, are causing most employers to include wage increases in their plans for 2025. Plans to increase the minimum wage have the greatest impact on inflationary processes - most employers intend to calculate this additional cost into the prices of goods and services.
In response to the economic crisis, about 40-43% of respondents plan to increase their production volume, as well as the range of products/services offered, and every third will seek new markets.
Among the business priorities for 2026 are investments in staff development/training, as well as investments in energy-saving technologies and digitalization of production processes.
In conclusion…
In the face of unclear prospects, business retains a high degree of pessimism, so its expectations and plans for the future are too cautious and subject to pragmatism.
It should be also noted that the survey was conducted during the period of discussion of the state budget option, for which the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA) also warned that proposed measures could create additional inflationary pressures and pose risks to financial stability.
