Institutions, experts and analysts have repeatedly commented that a profound global systemic transformation is currently underway. The reason is, of course, the unprecedented technological race, reshaping the organization and functioning of almost all systems – from business ecosystems and standards to social relations. Global supply chains and international trade are often the background to what is happening, and currently they are instruments for exerting influence and gaining advantages in the technological race. The stakes are the future of trade or the way and new rules it will follow.
A team from the Bulgarian Industrial Association developed 5 development scenarios, which were presented during the annual conference of the largest business support network in the world - Enterprise Europe Network , held in November 2025 in Aalborg, Denmark.
The five scenarios are useful both as a starting point for long-term strategic planning and as a means of providing a framework for understanding the business approaches and actions of corporate players. Of course, we cannot guarantee that they will develop exactly, and that if they do, it will be in exactly the way we have described. Nor can we guarantee that they are the only possible ones. What we can say is that they are based on clearly defined and salient signals and drivers of change, and that they are not static.
Regardless of whether any of these or completely different scenarios and opportunities will develop in the coming years, one thing is clear - the role of the World Trade Organization will be redefined and fundamentally changed. In any case, in the next 10-15 years at least, business is likely to operate in an increasingly turbulent environment. The uncertainty and unpredictability of supplies is becoming an everyday occurrence. Therefore, a longer-term strategic view will be essential for positioning and decision-making not only for the administration, but also for all enterprises with ambitions for growth in international markets.
Autor: Christina Kasparyan
