THE BUSINESS VIEW OF 2025
BIA presents the results of its traditional online survey of the Association’s members, conducted between 7 November and 7 December 2025 among 847 micro, small, medium, and large enterprises from across the country and all sectors of the economy. The presentation of the survey results was scheduled for 15 December 2025 but was postponed in view of the protests and the government’s resignation, in order to prevent the politicization of the information.
The survey has been conducted for the 21st consecutive year, aiming to examine the state of business under the current macroeconomic conditions. The main topics are related to the impact of political processes at the international and national levels on business in Bulgaria, as well as business planning for the next calendar year.
69% of the surveyed enterprises are micro and small (with up to 50 employees), 19% are medium-sized (50 to 250 employees), and 12% are large (over 250 employees).
21% are from the “Industry” sector (including manufacturing and mining), 20% of respondents represent enterprises from the “Services” sector, 18% from the “Trade” sector, 10% from “Hospitality, restaurants, tourism,” 8% from “Construction,” 5% from “Education,” 4% from “Transport and logistics,” 2% from the “Financial sector,” 2% from “Healthcare,” 3% from “Agriculture,” and other activities – 7%.
19% of the surveyed enterprises operate in the Northeastern region, 13% in the North Central, 11% in the Southeastern, 10% in the Southwestern planning region, 11% in the South Central, and 8% in the Northwestern region. 28% operate across the entire country.
Assessments for 2025
Survey participants give a predominantly negative assessment of both the business climate and the condition of their own companies.
Pessimism among Bulgarian businesses in 2025 is driven by a combination of external shocks (the international geopolitical situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine, the energy crisis), their subsequent effects, high inflation and production costs, slowing demand, prolonged political instability, and other internal problems such as labor shortages and heavy administration. These factors act simultaneously and intensify the sense of uncertainty, prompting enterprises to limit their expectations and focus on survival rather than growth, amid the transition to a new currency as of 1 January 2026.
Following a series of crises (COVID-19, rising energy prices, the war in Ukraine), a slowdown in global economic growth is now also being observed, with a large share of Bulgarian enterprises expecting their own results to deteriorate due to the weakening world economy.
Pessimistic attitudes are further fueled by forecasts of shrinking orders and demand, both domestically and internationally.
The domestic political environment also has a strong negative effect on the business climate.
The lack of stable governance and reforms increases uncertainty and makes long-term planning difficult. Business representatives also note a deficit of partnership between business and state institutions, with trust in the executive, legislative, and judicial branches being almost zero.
Labor shortages and regulatory obstacles persist. Enterprises also continue to complain about corruption in the administration. Uncertainty surrounding state policy also contributes to pessimism.
Forecasts for 2026
Traditionally, between 30 and 40 percent of participants in BIA’s annual surveys are optimistic about the future of the economy. The lowest share of optimists was in 2011 (13%) and in 2020 (11%) - in the first case following the financial crisis of 2009–2010, and in the second due to the COVID crisis. These were also the years with the highest number of pessimists - 71% in 2011 and 70% in 2020.
After the easing of the COVID crisis, traditional optimism briefly returned in 2021 but was quickly dampened by reality. In this year’s survey, pessimists again predominate (66%).
The majority of respondents see the risks to the development of the Bulgarian economy in expected increases in prices and inflation, fiscal and regulatory burdens, and the continuously rising cost of labor. Business concerns are mainly rooted in the ongoing (and open-ended) international and national crises and political turbulence, which bring instability and uncertainty, making forecasting and planning impossible.
Obstacles
Respondents identify the biggest obstacles to business as the lack of labor, bureaucracy, regulatory burdens, frequently changing legislation, and corruption. An inefficient judicial system also emerges as a serious problem.
For the majority of respondents, high prices of raw materials, supplies, and energy resources, as well as uncontrolled and unjustified income growth, create serious difficulties, forcing them to raise the final prices of their products and cut costs (mainly investments).
Plans
Expectations of rising prices and, more specifically, labor costs are prompting most employers to include wage increases in their plans for 2025. Plans to increase the minimum wage have the greatest impact on inflationary processes — most employers intend to incorporate this additional cost into the prices of goods and services.
In response to the economic crisis, about 40–43% of respondents plan to increase their production volume as well as the range of products/services offered, and one in three will seek new markets.
Among business priorities for 2026 are investments in staff development/training, as well as investments in energy-saving technologies and production digitalization.
In conclusion…
In conditions of unclear prospects, businesses maintain a high degree of pessimism, so their expectations and plans for the future are very cautious and guided by pragmatism.
It should be noted that the survey was conducted during the period of discussion of the draft state budget, about which the Bulgarian Industrial Association (BIA) also warned that it includes measures that could generate new inflationary pressure and risks to financial stability.
See the whole survey HERE
